Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Colao's inheritance: maturing markets and tough regulators


via guardian.co.uk Technology by Richard Wray on 5/27/08

There is unlikely to be a dramatic change of strategy at the world's largest mobile phone company with the promotion of Vittorio Colao - after all, he has sat on the board since his return to the fold in 2006.

But he faces some serious challenges as competition and regulators force down prices in Vodafone's European markets and some of its emerging markets mature. Cost-cutting is likely to play a major role in these regions over the coming years, raising the prospect of job losses. In the search for revenue growth, meanwhile, Vodafone is rapidly running out of globe.

Yesterday's annual results showed good growth, with revenues up 14.1% at a slightly better than expected £35.5bn and profits before financial charges up 10% at £13.2bn. The company also generated a whopping £5.5bn of cash.

Outgoing chief executive Arun Sarin stressed yesterday that "my disappearance, in my judgment, does not affect our ability to execute the strategy. There's enough momentum in the business that my leaving at this stage does not cause the company to slow down."

He was right. The company is slowing down all by itself.

Vodafone said yesterday that it expects revenues for the coming year to come in at £39.8bn to £40.7bn, which is like-for-like growth - excluding acquisitions - of 5% to 6%. That forecast was better than many in the City had expected but does mean the company's growth will be lower than last year's 6.5% like-for-like growth.

One of the main reasons is that prices are expected to decline 10% to 15% annually over the next few years across many of Vodafone's operations because of intense competition as markets mature and as a result of increasing regulatory price caps.

In Europe, for instance, regulators have already had a go at international voice roaming and are turning their attentions to text and mobile internet roaming prices. The cost of calling a mobile phone from another network or fixed-line phone is also set to fall as regulators from the UK to Italy clamp down on so-called mobile termination rates.

To deal with these pressures, Vodafone is hoping to persuade people to make more calls and use their phone for more than just talking. For the first time ever, mobile data revenues in Europe went over £5bn last year as consumers texted furiously, surfed the web on their phones and plugged their laptops into mobile broadband.

Coupled with its move into the residential broadband market in countries such as the UK and Germany, Vodafone is becoming more of a content business than just an operator of access pipes. The choice of Colao, who spent two years in the media business (which Sarin reckons was a good "training ground"), will raise talk that Vodafone wants to get further into the content market.

Colao said yesterday there is certainly a lot of opportunity for cooperation with media owners as the internet and mobile phones converge. "There are going to be a lot of things that we as an industry and we in Vodafone can do together with the leading media players to enable the transition to the converged world," he said.

In Vodafone's eastern European, Middle East, Africa, Pacific and Asia (EMAPA) business, meanwhile, markets are maturing. The Czech Republic and Egypt, for instance, are coming close to saturation point. In fact, stripping out the "go-go" markets of India and Turkey, Vodafone's EMAPA region recorded 19.5% revenue growth in 2005/6, 21.1% growth in 2006/7, but just 14.5% last year. Even finance director Andy Halford had to admit that growth had come down with a "thunk".

Of course, including India and Turkey, revenue growth in EMAPA was 22.1% last year. As a market, Turkey is fast maturing but India will remain strong for several years. The problem for Colao is where to go next.

Vodafone had a brief and disastrous spell in Latin America before dumping its business in Mexico after one of that country's regular economic collapses. Going into South America would bring the company into contact with some very large and powerful players - not least O2 owner Telefónica - so that door is probably closed.

Vodafone's ambitions in Africa, meanwhile, have been frustrated by the collapse of the takeover negotiations in which its South African partner was involved, which would have resulted in Vodafone buying out its mobile business.

Since then, Africa's largest mobile phone operator, MTN, has come up for sale. It has operations spanning South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda, as well as several countries in the Middle East. Its original suitor - India's Bharti Airtel - has pulled out, to be replaced by another Indian suitor, Reliance Communications, but Vodafone reckons MTN's £19bn price tag is too high and has no plans to bid. Sarin yesterday suggested the board's plan is to pick up any other assets that come up for sale in Africa and wait for further opportunities to for "bulking up a little more".

There are some other Asian opportunities but the real excitement in that area is China. Vodafone has a very small stake in China Mobile, which is adding an eye-watering 7 million customers a month, and is watching the government's restructuring of the market with interest. But the company, at least according to Sarin, is likely to stick with China Mobile for the medium term "just because it is such a high-performing company", which puts paid to Vodafone's ability to get more involved.

The last part of the global jigsaw is the North American market and again Colao has little room for manoeuvre. Its joint venture with local partner Verizon Communications (Verizon Wireless) is doing very well, especially compared with some of its rivals who are actually losing customers - but is not paying Vodafone any money while it pays down its $20bn debt. Sarin has been forced to justify keeping the stake and Colao is likely to be asked the same question.

In fact there was a lot of second-guessing during Sarin's time. Asked yesterday whether he felt vindicated, he responded: "The key is to have the tenacity to stay the course and you have to be really confident that you are doing the right things." Those are words that Colao would do well to heed.





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